> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.raisepill.com/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Analytics and forecasting

> Predictive P10–P90 capital forecasts, per-opportunity win probabilities, counterfactual recommendations, and the knowledge graph of your fundraising.

Analytics is the Strategist’s home base. It turns everything the agents know about your pipeline into forward-looking predictions.

## Fundraise forecast

A **Monte Carlo simulation** runs 10,000 scenarios based on your current pipeline and win probabilities. The output is a fan chart showing:

* **P10** — capital raised in the bottom 10% of scenarios (pessimistic)
* **P50** — median expected outcome
* **P90** — capital raised in the top 10% of scenarios (optimistic)

The model recalculates automatically whenever your pipeline changes or a new opportunity is added.

## Win probability per opportunity

Each active grant and investor thread gets a win percentage based on:

* Similarity to past awarded applications in RaisePill’s database
* Your quality score from the Reviewer
* Funder-specific historical success rates
* Your project’s profile match to the call

Win % × grant amount = **expected value**, shown on each pipeline card.

## Counterfactuals

Strategist surfaces "what if" recommendations with quantified impact:

> *"Add a university partner → +18% win prob on EIC Accelerator"*\
> *"Submit 2 weeks before deadline instead of last day → +6% win prob"*\
> *"Slow outreach to 3 sends/week → -€280k expected value"*

Each counterfactual includes the data behind it. Accept or dismiss recommendations from this view.

## Knowledge graph

An Obsidian-style visualization of every connection the autopilot has learned across your project:

`Project → Agents → Sources → Drafts → Contacts → Patterns`

Use it to understand how the agent is thinking about your fundraise — which sources it’s drawing on, which contacts are connected to which opportunities, and what patterns it’s identified.